Seal the Deal: Bargaining Positions,Institutional Design,and the Duration of Preferential Trade Negotiations

Multilateral negotiations at the World Trade Organization have stalled. This has contributed to a steep rise in preferential trade agreements (PTAs). At the same time, negotiations for PTAs have not always proven quick and painless: While some treaties are sealed within a few months or days only, other agreements are preceded by protracted bargaining processes in trade and trade-related issue areas. In this article, we provide a theoretical explanation for this empirical variation. More specifically, we argue that PTA negotiations take longer the greater the distance between the prospective partners’ initial bargaining positions. Moreover, we contend that negotiation processes become more protracted the higher the relative ambition of the prospective PTA. Due to the limited links to the domestic political arena in autocracies, we expect this latter effect to play out for groups of democratic bargaining partners only. We test these two hypotheses for 198 preferential trade negotiations using novel measures for bargaining templates and the ambition of PTA clauses. In our two-stage survival models, we find support for our argument. In line with qualitative evidence from recent preferential trade initiatives, our models indicate that services, investment and intellectual property rights are particularly sticky agenda items for democratic leaders at the international bargaining table.     

Negotiating the review process: a CIA guide to intelligence analysis, 1970

The literature on intelligence analysis contains many references to the ‘review process’, the mechanism by which analysts’ drafts are converted into corporate products. Analysts whose drafts consistently navigate the process quickly and smoothly are regarded as star performers. Divining the practical meaning of organizational definitions of ‘good’ analysis and the personal preferences of specific senior reviewers is not easy, however. Analysts occasionally commit their understanding of reviewers’ stylistic preferences to paper, effectively providing style guides to help others. This essay presents and explains the development and implications of one such guide, which was designed to help analysts in CIA’s Office of Strategic Research in the early 1970s.     

恶意透支型信用卡诈骗司法认定中若干疑难问题探析

最高人民法院、最高人民检察院联合发布的《关于办理妨害信用卡管理刑事案件具体应用法律若干问题的解释》对恶意透支作出了进一步规定,并确定了"经发卡银行两次催收后超过三个月仍不归还"的限制条件。但在司法实践中,对于如何理解经发卡银行两次催收后超过三个月仍不归还、两次催收的认定、三个月的宽限期计算等问题仍存在争议,本文试对以上几个问题进行探讨。     

A Prospective Study of Mexican American Adolescents’ Academic Success: Considering Family and Individual Factors

Mexican American youth are at greater risk of school failure than their peers. To identify factors that may contribute to academic success in this population, this study examined the prospective relationships from 5th grade to 7th grade of family (i.e., human capital [a parent with at least a high school education], residential stability, academically and occupationally positive family role models, and family structure) and individual characteristics (i.e., externalizing symptoms, bilingualism, gender, and immigrant status) to the academic performance of 749 Mexican American early adolescents (average age = 10.4 years and 48.7% were girls in 5th grade) from economically and culturally diverse families as these youth made the transition to junior high school. Results indicated that while controlling for prior academic performance, human capital and positive family role models assessed when adolescents were in 5th grade positively related to academic performance in 7th grade. Further, being a girl also was related to greater 7th grade academic success, whereas externalizing symptoms were negatively related to 7th grade academic performance. No other variables in the model were significantly and prospectively related to 7th grade academic performance. Implications for future research and interventions are discussed.     

China-Central Asia Cooperation Forum Produces Good Results

To celebrate the 20th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the five Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, the CPAFFC     

指纹鉴定标准及鉴定结论概率化研究

指纹鉴定标准是指纹鉴定理论的核心内容之一.指纹鉴定理论和实践中形成的最低特征数量标准、质量—数量标准、面积—质量量化标准、拓扑学方法和标准、形态学方法和标准等均有其局限性.运用统计学理论和贝叶斯定理建立指纹鉴定结论概率化方法和评价标准,不仅在理论和实践上具有必要性和可行性,而且也可以避免指纹鉴定标准之争,使指纹鉴定从经验走向科学.通过统计每枚指纹平均细节特征数量和每类特征的出现率,可以计算出两枚指纹匹配的概率值,进而对概率结论的可靠性作出分析评断.     

城市道路平面交叉口现状分析和控制方案设计——以昆明市教场中路与教场北路交叉口为例

道路交叉口的交通信号控制,旨在通过减少平面交叉口内交通流所产生的冲突点和交织点,提高路口的通行能力,使交通流在交叉路口内能够确保安全并快速通过。城市道路交叉口往往交通流情况复杂,人员密集,交通流量大,一旦缺乏有效的交通控制方式,极易造成交通秩序混乱并引发交通拥堵。本文通过对昆明市一个道路交叉口交通现状进行调查与分析研究,设计并提出合理有效的交通控制方案。